The Ups and Downs of Iran’s Oil Exports to China
WANA (Jan 04) – While some media outlets reported a decrease in China’s purchase of oil from Iran and a shift to other sources over the past two months, new statistics show that Beijing has increased its oil imports from Tehran.
Beijing is Iran’s largest oil partner, and according to tracking firms, Iran’s oil exports increased from an average of 818,000 barrels per day in 2021 to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023 and over 1.6 million barrels per day in 2024.
However, in recent months, some media outlets, citing data from oil shipment tracking companies, reported a decrease in Iran’s oil exports to China in October and November.
According to these media reports, Iran sent about 1.8 million barrels per day in September, 1.5 million barrels per day in October, and 1.3 million barrels per day in November.
One media outlet, in several reports, cited various reasons for this decrease, including Iran’s oil storage due to potential conflict with the Israeli regime, reduced discounts by Iran, lack of interest from Chinese independent refineries known as “teapots,” the impact of new Biden administration sanctions, and more. Some media even wrote that Beijing had turned to alternative sources.
In the latest instance, the oil shipment tracking firm Kepler wrote over 20 days ago that Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports to China in November reached 1.31 million barrels per day, the lowest level in four months. This decrease of 524,000 barrels was attributed to geopolitical tensions, domestic energy shortages, and transportation challenges due to stricter U.S. sanctions.
According to the tracking firm, Chinese refineries, due to reduced supply from Iran, have turned to spot purchases from non-sanctioned sources like the UAE and West Africa. The fall of the Bashar al-Assad government has also led to shipments previously sent to Syria being redirected to China, which may strengthen Chinese refineries’ bargaining power.
Experts, however, say that oil buyers sometimes increase their oil purchases for a few months due to technical issues and refinery overhauls, and then import less oil in subsequent months, causing fluctuations in oil export levels, which is a normal occurrence.
A few days ago, the oil shipment tracking company “Tanker Trackers” reported an increase in Iran’s oil exports to China on the social network X.
The company announced on its account: “Iran’s crude oil exports have increased significantly after a slow pace in the first half of December 2024.”